In every form of motorsport, whether it is Formula Ford or Formula One, there is always a natural boom and bust cycle. But sportscar racing appears to be in danger of getting the latter without the former this time around. Peugeot's decision to cancel their sportscar programme with immediate effect has pulled the rug from underneath a brand of the sport that appeared set for a new golden era in the coming years.
To recap on some of the back story - if you'll indulge me - after the runaway success of 2011's Intercontinental Le Mans Cup, which we covered in some shambling depth on these pages, the FIA confirmed the formation of a new World Endurance Championship for 2012 and beyond.
Although the inaugural calendar was the subject of a few frowns of discontent, most notably the lack of Petit Le Mans and the inclusion of a dreadful-sounding six hour race at Bahrain's Sakhir circuit, the sight of a bona-fide FIA-backed endurance series for the first time since the golden age of Group C and the World Sportscar Championship caused spasms of delight across the motorsport world.
Reaction to the new series was unendingly positive. Within weeks of the WEC being unveiled, the likes of Toyota, Porsche, Honda, Jaguar and Chrysler all either confirmed or hinted at a return to mainstream sportscar racing in some way, shape or form. A new boom era for the sport after a middling decade or so seemed inevitable.
With the Automobile Club de l’Ouest and the FIA promising to take a new look at efforts to equalise performance between the dominant LMP1 diesels of Audi and Peugeot and the massed ranks of frustrated petrol-powered runners, more privateer prototype entries came forward, the likes of LMP2 squad Strakka Racing and GT1 champions JR Motorsport confirming moves into the premier class for 2012.
But Wednesday's announcement from Peugeot, one admittedly taken for purely economic reasons rather than any ostensible problems with the FIA/ACO championship, has suddenly plunged the championship into uncertain times for the coming season. Far from 2012 being the dawning of a glorious new era, the inaugural WEC could well end up being a spluttering mess of an affair, limping along waiting for the promise of future glamour entries to give it some desperately-needed cachet.
"It is a big disappointment for the 24 Hours of Le Mans and the FIA World Endurance Championship, which begins in the year 2012, a competition created at the request of manufacturers in general and in particular Peugeot," admitted ACO president Jean-Claude Plassart after the French team's announcement, "No doubt the hundreds of thousands of fans who flock to the 24 Hours of Le Mans each year and millions of viewers who follow will regret the absence of the Peugeot 'lions'." The lack of factory 908s is unlikely to deter spectators at Le Mans itself, but for the rest of the WEC schedule, it is a big blow.
With Porsche's return to the prototype ranks still two years away, and no firm deadline set for any of the other big names that expressed interest in the WEC last year, 2012's season will now likely see Audi take on some very thin competition indeed. Toyota's newborn LMP1 campaign will be limited to sporadic single-car appearances across the 2012 season, a toe-in-the-water season ahead of a full entry in 2013, and they cannot be expected to take the fight to the German marque.
Aside from the manufacturers, the rest of the LMP1 class will be little more than eager privateers. There will be no more factory Aston Martin action, in the prototype division at least, and the well-backed privateer Peugeot of Hugues de Chaunac's Oreca team is gone, that team now assisting Toyota's efforts. That leaves the two P1 newcomers Strakka and JRM, 2011 petrol class stalwarts Rebellion Racing and their Lola Toyotas, and whichever small operations choose to continue their own P1 efforts.
The WEC also can't rely on booming support classes all season-long either. Although there has been plenty of interest from LMP2 and GT squads ahead of the 2012 season, any averagely-funded team in either division has a more obvious sportscar championship to race in.
The European Le Mans Series (née the Le Mans Series) has dropped their LMP1 class for 2012, meaning that the smaller, cheaper LMP2 cars are now the big attention-grabbing main class. Better win a championship outright than finish as class winners behind the media-hogging big boys. Meanwhile, the GT division remains the main strength of the American Le Mans Series. The ALMS will feature full factory efforts from both BMW and Corvette in 2012, the WEC (Le Mans aside) may well have neither, their own GT classes merely a motley selection of private Ferrari 458s and Porsche 911s.
Despite those obvious alternatives, however, the 2012 championship should still be able to attract a full grid. Last year's ILMC saw 50+ grids at just about every race, and while Peugeot's loss is a big blow PR-wise, grid size-wise it is only two less cars. Muddle through 2012, get Toyota in full-time from next year, and this whole setback may just go down as a blip in the resurrection of sportscar racing.
But on the other hand, fans switched on to this slightly love-it-or-hate-it form of motorsport by last year's electrifying Le Mans 24 Hours battle, where Audi held off Peugeot by just 15.6 seconds at the end of a ceaseless 24 hour-long tussle, might be less inspired by what the first WEC has to offer. Audi domination, a lack of star entries and manufacturer pizazz, and sportscar racing may just have missed its chance to jump right back into the public consciousness.
Hopefully this does prove to be little more than a setback, and we will find out on February 2nd when the full entry list is released by the FIA, because the WEC (stupid stupid Bahrain race aside) deserves a shot at success, but today's announcement made the well-beaten 'boom' section of the whole cycle suddenly look a lot further away.
Patronise F1 will be covering the 2012 World Endurance Championship, whether you like it or not, after the 'success' of our 2011 ILMC coverage.
The season begins with the Sebring 12 Hours on March 17th.
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