As moments of pathetic fallacy go, the omens have not been good for Ferrari this week. The skies above Maranello have - like the skies that greeted Phil Connors in Pennsylvania - been unhappily gloomy, with the heavy snowfall on the region that forced them to cancel their planned jingoistic launch event in favour of an all-online reveal of their latest F1 competitor adding to the suggestion that things are not quite right at the Italian team right now.
On the face of it, 2011 was a relatively successful campaign. A race win at Silverstone, nine further podium finishes and third place in the constructors championship is the sort of performance that most teams would cut off their right sidepod for. But at Ferrari, following hot on the heels of their strategic failure in the final race in 2010 to allow Sebastian Vettel to take the title by default, their morose 2009 campaign and their last-lap shellacking in 2008, it was regarded as another failure for a team still struggling to find any sort of consistent form post-Schumacher/Todt/Brawn.
The reasoning behind their 2011 failings was largely blamed on the car itself, the daftly-named 150° Italia lambasted for being too conservative in design, too feeble at heating the new generation of F1 tyre from Pirelli and too slow to adapt to the blown diffuser concepts that McLaren and Red Bull exploited so well.
So, Ferrari's axe of doom swung over their backroom staff once again. In 2010, their dramatic failure on the strategy side in Abu Dhabi saw Chris Dyer ousted from the pit wall, while 2011's technical failings saw Aldo Costa shoved out of the door. This is still a Ferrari with a level of the Schumie-era ruthlessness about it, but this seems more like reactionary, misdirected ruthlessness, a team constantly fighting to close a barn door after each new prancing horse has bolted.
Still, on the face of it they have made every effort to hit back at claims that their 2011 car showed a lack of aggression. For all the things you can say about the new F2012, arguably the ugliest Ferrari F1 machine since the high-nosed variant of 1996's F310, it can't be accused of being a cautious approach to F1 design. Their platypus nose seems to be the most extreme and detailed of those revealed so far, while the sculpted rear exhaust outlets, the switch to pull-rod front suspension and the chaotic-looking engine cover all point to the team throwing caution to the wind for performance this year.
And the team seemed pretty proud of their efforts, thank you very much. While nobody really expects an F1 team to come out and say "We're hoping for a few points, but we'll probably be crap" during a launch, Ferrari continued to push the boat out when it came to faith-winning soundbites. "We want to win...we have all the ingredients for a perfect recipe," Luca di Montezemolo scowled, "Everything has been improved, and I am sure we will be rewarded. Our fans and supporters want to see us back to great glory."
Sound familiar? Possibly because he seemed to just run his 2011 launch speech through a thesaurus a few times. "This year we have to win and we will do our best to win," he said a year ago, "We have updated the team, we have made some improvements and we are awaiting the challenges against our first opponents." It appears that if Ferrari have their way, Groundhog Day might need to be rescheduled for February 3rd in future.
Stefano Domenicali was at it as well. "I am sure our car will be winning right from the beginning," he bragged this morning, "We have learned many lessons from the past, and taken some difficult decisions. But I am sure all our efforts will be represented with this car." Compare and contrast with 2011, where he said: "The F150 was created with a very simple aim - and it is so simple I don't want to say it," he blustered, "We are starting from a season where we had difficult moments...our team is motivated and has been renewed - and that is in the logic of continuous improvement."
So, like taking a trip to Punxsutawney in the wintertime, taking in a Ferrari F1 launch can result in a serious case of deja vu. Maybe for 2013 they'll pipe in 'I Got You Babe' over the PA as they pull the sheet off. But in fairness to the team, the rabid desperation for success from their short-tempered Tifosi rather drives them to promising the world every passing year. Finishing second is not an option for the team, until it depressingly becomes reality.
Neutrals, like scarlet-clad Italians, should be praying that the F2012 is a success, even despite its looks. Two years in to the Alonso-Ferrari partnership, the Spaniard remains frustratingly title-free, and while many of his drives in 2011 were nothing short of astounding, it was all an exercise in making the best of a bad job. Assuming Vettel is up front again in 2011, and assuming Lewis Hamilton has sorted his head out and will be up there as well, F1 2012 needs Ferrari and Alonso to complete the triptych of title contenders in its potentially awesome championship scrap.
The alternative to a title challenge is, for Ferrari, unthinkable. "We have to fight for the title and try and get as many points as possible," Alonso growled after the launch of the car, "We really want to be right at the top of the ranking." We'll find out whether or not the team has finally broken their cycle of disappointment over the coming weeks as the F2012 sets hearts racing and stomachs turning on the track.
Otherwise, the team will be left picking who next to fire, which new lessons to learn, and how precisely they can re-hash their confident speeches for Groundhog Day 2013.
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