Whoever wins the 2008 F1 world championship, it seems unlikely to be remembered as a nailed-on classic. Even compared simply just to last year, when we had a rookie sensation, a chaotic breakdown of team dynamics and an underdog triumph of sorts, this year has been a bit unmemorable. Perhaps it will be remembered simply for the number of mess-ups made by the so-called cream of the crop. Whether it was spinning out (at the same corner, twice), spinning out again, crashing in the pits, breaking down, having their exhaust melt, knackering tyres or driving into former team mates, the triumverate of title contenders have not exactly had stellar seasons. And yet, because they have easily the best cars, one of them will be crowned champion of the world at some point between now and the end of the Brazilian Grand Prix in early November. So lets sum up why it may be, or may not be, your "favourite" driver, shall we?
Lewis Hamilton
Points: 70
Position: 1st
Best Odds: 4/6 fav (BlueSQ)
Advantages: Hamilton's big advantage will doubtless be the fact that, unlike last year, he won't be racing his team mate. This year, more often than not, this has been the case literally as well as metaphorically, as Heikki Kovalainen has struggled to really make an impact in his debut year with the team. The flip side of this is that Kovalainen has very rarely finished ahead of either Ferrari in non-crazy conditions, which means that Hamilton may well have to win this one by himself.
Disadvantages: After last season's rather cataclysmic bottling session in the final two races of the year, questions undoubtably remain regarding his temperament when push comes to shove. He's talked the talk lately about his belief in himself to get the job done, but it'll take more than confident responses to a few wet questions from Steve Rider to win a championship.
Try To Remember: The car control, skill and the not-cocking-it-up-ness that allowed him to with the British Grand Prix by nearly a full lap earlier in the season.
Try To Forget: The out of control, skill-less cock up that allowed him to drive into Kimi Raikkonen's Ferrari in the pit lane in Montreal earlier in the season.
Felipe Massa
Points: 64
Position: 2nd
Best Odds: 11/4 (Coral)
Advantages: Massa is doubtless the form man right now. Notwithstanding his engine failure at Hungary, he has been in a class of one for the last two races, and if he can do it again at the renowned Ferrari-friendly Spa-Francorchamps, he may well hold enough of an advantage over his team-mate to get the team behind him and him alone for the final push.
Disadvantages: As any Massa fan will know, he has an almost preternatural ability to grab humiliation from the jaws of deification. Chances are just as equal that he'll spin out of a 35 second lead at Belgium on lap 32.
Try To Remember: His four imperious victories this year to date. When he is good, he is very very good.
Try To Forget: His needless spin into retirement while under precisely zero pressure in Malaysia. Those eight points would have seen him go into 2008's endgame with the championship lead. When he is bad, he is horrid.
Kimi Raikkonen
Points: 57
Position: 3rd
Best Odds: 11/2 (SkyBet)
Advantages: He has been here before (i.e. way behind in the drivers championship). With six races to go last year, he trailed Hamilton by 20 points, but still snatched victory in the final race, scoring an incredible 50 points from the avaliable 60 to ease past the bickering McLarens. Though it is worth pointing out that he is already far enough behind Hamilton that if he won all the remaining races, Hamilton could still finish second behind him at each event to take the title, such is the silliness of the current F1 points system.
Disadvantages: By his own half-decent standards, he has been awful for large portions of this year. In the eight races since his last win in Barcelona, he has scored a measley 28 points, and has often spent great swathes of the race distance tootling around looking every inch a man who couldn't give a crap. Part of his problem can be ascribed to a needless persitance with fuelling his car heavier in qualifying, but a not inconsiderable amount of the problem doubtless lies with his driving itself.
Try To Remember: Last year. Second, second, win, third, win, third, win, win, trophy, champagne, mumbled platitudes, title.
Try To Forget: Pretty much every race since around mid-May.
Anyone else?
Mathematically, 12 drivers could still top the championship table come the checkered flag in Brazil, but realistically only Robert Kubica is even worth a footnote in the championship fight. Although BMW faded dreadfully after achieving their modest "win a race" ambition for the year in Canada, the infighting and general cack-handedness of the top three, coupled with a return to podium pace in Valencia means that Kubica sits just 2 points behind Raikkonen in 4th place. He'd need a lot of luck, a bit more speed and potentially some sort of cataclysmic Ferrari self-destruction a la Alonso/Hamilton last year to have a realistic chance, but hey, stranger things have happened. Just ask Keke Rosberg.
The Tracks
Spa: Last year Ferrari were imperious at the Belgian track, and a similar situation is likely to exist this year. The fast corners lend themselves to the F12008, though rain is never far away in the Ardennes, and although fans may love the idea of precipitation, Ferrari will be hoping the wet stuff keeps it's big field-levelling nose out of things.
Monza: McLaren dominated the 2007 event, but Ferrari's new car tends to work a lot better over the high kerbs that blight the circuit than last year, so the gap may well close up. Probably not by enough though.
Singapore: Another new street circuit that should suit McLaren, but the amount of unknowns, i.e. the effects of racing at night, the grip levels of the track and the fact that it's probably more of an Albert Park than a Monaco, means that this may well be fairly even.
Fuji: Difficult to call. Hamilton was dominant last year, but then the whole weekend was a washout. In dry conditions, the enormous straight will likely suit Ferrari. Who the heck really knows?
Shanghai: Even stevens likely here as well. Raikkonen came into his own in the middle stint of the race last season, but McLaren will be hopeful that they will hold the edge.
Interlagos: A Ferrari track, but not by too much.
Overall then, matters seem too close to call. Hamilton holds the advantage points wise, Massa seems to have the edge pace wise, while Raikkonen has history on his side. As for my money, a combination of crippling debts and the chronic need for gin money has seen me lump all my remaining pennies on Nick Heidfeld at 300/1, so I'm probably not the best person to ask.
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